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Since May, A share market out there is the Greek sovereign debt crisis, there are monetary policy tightening and the housing under the double impact of the weak trend, investors are beginning to worry whether the global economy will be second bottom? For the A-share market has no confidence in the future, discourage investment; however, whether from the impact of capital market factors, as well as international and domestic market situation, are not overly pessimistic about the reasons for the valuation of listed companies, growth, etc. fundamentals, as well as financial prices, interest rates, abundant liquidity trend in the degree of mobility of several major factor, no significant changes occurred, the recent market declines may have a particularly short-term reasons, it did not change the long-term growth trend. View from the international market, investors are most concerned about is whether the Greek sovereign debt crisis will continue to evolution? Will lead the international economy to the second bottom? We believe that last year's unsustainable economic icy factors: the credit crunch can not be sustained, stock can rise and unemployment can not continue to rise, not wages continued to decline, while the current economic situation is also moving in direction of recovery, Europe and the United States recently The GDP chain are more than 3%, a number of economic leading indicators are also showing strong signal; the current international economic issues from the major sovereign debt problem, the problem quickly resolved smoothly Dubai earlier, while the size of Greece is a relatively small economies, its GDP accounted for only about 2% of the EU, accounting for more than 1% of the world, the key is whether the EU will become a serious problem affecting their own before taking rescue measures. We judge its impact on the global economy is relatively small, it will not be extended to other EU countries, rapid, while the EU has sufficient financial and monetary policy space to address the crisis, the economy will bottom is a small probability of the second event; Even if the short-term lead market down, is also suitable investment opportunities, rather than risk the start. In addition, preliminary quantitative easing policy on whether the rapid withdrawal, we believe that the current turmoil in the financial system is still time to time, inflationary pressure is not high, high unemployment and the output gap is still the case, the global flow sex will not quickly tighten. From the Chinese market at this moment can be said to fall in the rising process. To the troika of view, consumption is stable, investment or short-term decline, but once the economic stabilization policies introduced in succession, the investment is expected to rise. Export has been highly correlated with the international economy, we are relatively optimistic about the medium-term prospects. So now is a back up process, rather than the medium-term post-peak decline, the investment point of view, are still in a good environment. The current tightening of liquidity is the fact that the market's performance will have certain constraints, and corporate profits after the regulation will have a lower, but still expect to maintain 20% growth rate. In the long run, this regulation on the future capital market is still favorable. Macroeconomic data from observation, in April of economic data is still relatively hot, therefore, expected in May or June policy will be tighter, but we expect about six months, the domestic economy will gradually faded into the background and policy shift may occur, but also for the capital markets create new opportunities. From the fundamental point of view, the current valuation of 14.5 times, excluding bank followed by 18.5 times, compared to 15% next year, the company expected earnings growth, valuation will be further reduced to 13 times. This valuation, both from history and look at China's economic growth are of great attraction. Terms from the growth this year, because of policy or regulation of which fell to around 20-25, but also bring more stability next year after growth of space in the basic case for the good, the market down this year, space is limited. Together, our current view of the market is that the recent correction, the medium-term upward, upward, within six months, the probability is still greater than the probability of down, for investors, the market bottom is not a point, but a range of limited space in the market down under the premise of the bottom 10% of the area from both the right investment timing. In addition, we believe that this decisive point is that the investment fund companies and fund managers in the locality, the structural ability to grasp opportunities, and the performance index will show a decoupling phenomenon. Harvest Fund this year, the overall system performance is good and will be based on short-term care, long-term optimistic tone, the risks are relatively low after the release of active investors seek to invest in blue. I am an expert from waterproofsportwatch.com, while we provides the quality product, such as waterproof mens watch Manufacturer , kids sport watches Manufacturer, sports wrist watch,and more.
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