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Oil prices are expected to continue down in September - Aquaculture industry by qmqm wang
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Oil prices are expected to continue down in September - Aquaculture industry by QMQM WANG
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| Article Posted: 12/13/2010 |
| Article Views: 20 |
| Articles Written: 809 - MORE ARTICLES FROM THIS AUTHOR |
| Word Count: 773 |
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Oil prices are expected to continue down in September - Aquaculture industry |
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Business,Business News,Business Opportunities
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Soybean meal and soybean oil prices over the years through statistical analysis, we can find out each year in September will show weak seasonal pattern of forced oil meal, while the domestic soybean meal demand and supply side to be significantly better than oil, there have been more ideal to sell to buy meal Oil arbitrage opportunity.
1, historical data show that in September the weak pattern of forced oil meal
To soybean oil and soybean meal futures closing in Zhangjiagang region over the years oil / meal price ratio spot trends as subjects, we found that parity between the two relations over the years in September were weaker, strong oil meal showed weak seasonal pattern.
The past three years, soybean oil, soybean meal and October futures contract price ratio trend (figure 2), two varieties of the parity price ratio trends and spot trends has strong linkage, September most of the time show strong oil meal weak trend.
Second, in September of domestic soybean oil / meal price ratio of seasonal weakness in the spot analysis of the inherent laws
From the breeding cycle perspective, in order to meet the end of New Year's Day and Spring Festival consumption of two important festivals each year in September is the breeding of poultry farming, especially the seasonal Bulan season. Meanwhile, at this time the proportion of pig herds in the pig is generally higher, but later with growing pigs, before the end of the year does not appear to increase even if the pig herds, swine feed consumption will increase. Therefore, under normal year beginning in September of feed demand has risen, soybean meal consumption has increased steadily.
While domestic oil entering in September, the National Day, Mid-Autumn Double stocking cycle near the end, New Year's Day, New Year's Double stocking cycle has not yet started the second half of the holiday shopping into a suspended period. Therefore, September is the traditional low season oil dealer purchasing. At this point, the soybean crushing plant, the more willing to sell oil to maintain profits quite meal, which led in September appeared weak oil meal strong seasonal pattern.
III oil and soybean meal demand and supply pattern of buy to sell oil to provide arbitrage opportunities Schrot
between September this year, is still able to reflect the seasonal characteristics of the current supply and demand of oil and meal pattern of decision in September will continue, the domestic spot weak pattern of forced oil meal, buy a meal there is still room to sell oil arbitrage.
Oil and soybean meal from the current supply point of view, because a substantial amount of 8,9 month decline in imports of soybeans, soybean inventories appear near the coastal port of rapid decline, began to plan some downtime oil plant, oil plant's soybean meal and soybean oil output decline. However, soybean oil and palm oil since 7-8 months of direct imports are in the growth, the port oil inventories remain high. As of Sept. 3, according to the author to understand the coastal ports reached nearly 500,000 tons of palm oil stocks, while soybean stocks are nearly 1 million tons. This led to the sale of soybean meal domestic coastal oil plant not much pressure, but soybean oil expansion libraries are frequent, and therefore a large oil inventory, price weakness, and soybean meal consumption and stable background, oil plant is also more willing to sell oil quite meal.
Recent domestic pork and poultry prices get boost farming efficiency, the current profit of broiler farming in 1-3 yuan / only, and pig farming profits of close to 200 yuan / head warm and is expected to farmers Bulan 9,10 inspired by the traditional peak season in the month, by the end of feed demand is expected to steadily increase.
National Day, Mid-Autumn Double oil purchases average, lower than the industry expected late September to mid-October weaker demand. Procurement has entered the traditional off-season now, but an abundant supply of domestic oil, traders are taking a wait and see attitude toward the downstream, the market became more cautious, is expected in September to seek support for oil prices to continue down the possibility of a larger share of the best investment at this time arbitrage is to buy meal to sell oil to y1001/m1001 example, the parity goal down in the 2.10-2.20 line. I am Cheap On Sales writer, reports some information about low sulphur diesel , scented lamp oil.
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