2008, the overall deterioration of the international financial crisis spread to the real economy. The world economy going? Reporter recently interviewed the World Bank Vice President and Chief Economist, International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Olivier Blanchard (OliverBlanchard) and the leading U.S. think tanks?? International Economic Research Institute Fred? Bergsten (FredBergstan) 3 international reputation of economists, listen to them freely about the world economic trends. Appears in Lin Yifu, the World economic outlook worrisome, but not As emerging economies into recession, if effective global response to world economic growth will likely "U" shaped turn, and in 2010 recovered. It is also recognized by Blanchard, in his view, there is no "magic bullet" can pass rule to the current crisis, conditions in different countries should take the responses fit. He stressed that the outlook is not optimistic, but the second half of 2009, the world economy is expected to turnaround.
Bergsten believes that the current economic situation, as a world economic power in the United States and China must strengthen coordination and Cooperation He thus proposed the two groups (G2) theory, urged the two countries established a higher level, closer interaction mechanism, the two leaders can meet regularly.
Possible "U"-type transition
Found under the authority of the agency, the U.S. economy was in recession in December 2007, while Germany, Japan and other developed economies are also struggling early in the recession.
From the global economic perspective, the academic community generally that if the economic growth rate below 3%, which is the global recession. According to the IMF and World Bank data, global recession also be expected, China, India, Russia and other emerging economies, growth will slow sharply. Despite the clear rejection of the economic outlook forecast Blanchard is also prudent that if countries are to take positive measures to cope with the world economy will turnaround in the second half of 2009.
"U.S. house prices is the initiator of the crisis, one of the second half of 2009, the price will be picked up." He said, In addition, the financial institutions to leverage the issue to the end of 2009 will also end Banks will also be willing to loan, the financial crisis will be coming to an end.
"We now forecast that the first half of 2009, the U.S. economy will register a negative growth, but the second half of slight growth occurs." He said. With the U.S. economy out of its predicament, the world economy a new dawn.
Lin Yifu, however, that although the overall pessimistic economic outlook for the world, but the national situation is controversial. "Although the United States and Europe will continue to put all the unprecedented rescue operation, but whether it can restore confidence in the market remains to be seen ... ... a recession, but they inevitably will." Lin Yifu
but also to judge, on the global economy as a whole, if the countries to strengthen cooperation in the world economy will be in the coming year through the current crisis, a new dawn. "If we can act together, the world economic growth will likely 'U' shaped turn, and a recovery in 2010." What a breakthrough deal with the crisis
For many economies, the most pressing problem is how to overcome the current crisis and prevent the economy into deep recession. Lin Yifu that in the present case, if there is room for fiscal stimulus, States should take to stimulate economic plan, increase in infrastructure, education and health sector investment, promote economic growth.
Different national circumstances, investment while similar, but must pay attention to different ways and effects. Lin Yifu of the view that developed countries, the need to prevent the large-scale Japanese investment in the 90's poor performance in the lesson. Lin Yifu
in view, to stimulate the economy, developed countries can not invest for investment, but need to find appropriate areas of need bottleneck, in this way can the long-term economic growth. I am an expert from China Manufacturers, usually analyzes all kind of industries situation, such as qiaotou , making pesto.
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