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Islamists set the pace, but egypt's presidential race looks set togo to a runoff by na b





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Islamists set the pace, but egypt's presidential race looks set togo to a runoff by
Article Posted: 11/25/2013
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Islamists set the pace, but egypt's presidential race looks set togo to a runoff


 
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Farmers and laborers have waited for hours in a long line outsidethe polling station in the impoverished village of Kirdasah, onCairo's western outskirts, but their spirits are high. Most are here to vote for the same candidate. "It's a rural town soeveryone here is supporting the Muslim Brotherhood," says SoaadAbdullah Wahab, a 40-year-old housewife, waiting to mark her ballotfor the Brotherhood's presidential candidate, Mohamed Morsy. "It'sbecause people here are more attached to religion." And it's not just Kirdasah.

Judging by informal exit polls from thefirst democratic presidential election in Egypt's history, a greatnumber of Egyptians — possibly many more than expected —are similarly "attached to religion." More than a year after a popular uprising ended the 30-year-reignof President Hosni Mubarak, the first presidential race of theso-called Arab Spring has pitted the former officials of the oustedregime against the Islamists that it once banned and imprisoned.The Brotherhood captured the lion's share of parliamentary seatslast winter, but prospects for a similar showing by itspresidential candidate, Mohamed Morsy, had been widely dismissed bypundits ahead of this week's vote. Morsy was labeled uncharismaticand unpopular by the Egyptian news media, while many analystsbelieved he had thrown his hat in the ring too late. Even if theBrotherhood's Freedom and Justice party may be the most organizedshow in town, analysts and political rivals believed that not allof the movement's supporters would simply back whichever candidatewas endorsed by the Brotherhood's leadership. And Morsy had been alast-minute choice — a "spare tire" as his critics havederisively called him — after the original Brotherhood pick,Khairat el-Shater, was disqualified by an electoral commissionchosen by the ruling military.

(SPECIAL: The Middle East in Revolt) But the naysayers may have miscalculated. It's hard to determinewhether Morsy is in the lead, but he's clearly doing far betterthan anyone had expected. And as electoral officials begin countingthe ballots after the polls close at 9 p.m. Thursday, theBrotherhood may well have to prepare itself for a run-off. By lateafternoon, all five of the frontrunner candidates, including twoIslamists, two former regime ministers, and a pan-Arab nationalist,claimed to be in the lead.

A five-way tie is highly improbable, butanalysts say a run-off vote in June between the two leadingcandidates — guaranteed if no candidate captures more than 50%of the votes — is almost certain. The Brotherhood says it's the movement's discipline andorganization that trumped the rivals in the end. "We have moreexperience," said one Brotherhood official, Khaled Tantawy,matter-of-factly, as the men around him tapped on computers in oneof the group's operations centers in the poor Cairo suburb ofShubra al-Kheima on Wednesday. The group's observers, spread out atpolling stations across the country, have provided their localoffices with regular updates and reports of violations over the twodays of voting, while tables of volunteers run outdoor help centersto guide Egyptians to their polling stations. The latter is atactic that worked well for the Islamists during parliamentaryelections — so well, perhaps, that supporters of anotherIslamist candidate and possible contender for the run-off, the moreliberal former Brotherhood official Abdel Moneim Aboul Futouh,followed suit.

But the Islamists certainly face a strong opposition, spurred— they allege — by the ruling military and state media.Indeed, another underrated frontrunner who has surged into theforeground this week is Mubarak's former Prime Minister and excommander of the Air Force, Ahmed Shafik. Liberal youth andIslamists say Shafik, along with the former Arab League chief AmrMoussa, are "felool" candidates — remnants of the old regime.Voters pelted Shafik with shoes as he visited a polling station onWednesday. And many of the same youth activists who participated inlast year's uprising have fought hard to discredit the men who theysay want nothing more than to restore the old order. (PHOTOS: Egypt Presidential Elections: Free and a Free-for-All) But Shafik's surge in popularity — and indeed Moussa'spopularity all along — underscores a sentiment that doesn'tsit well with Egyptian revolutionaries: some people miss the oldorder. And many others are willing to vote for a candidateassociated with it, if it means a return to pre-revolution socialstability.

As voters stuffed their choices into plastic ballotboxes near the Giza pyramids, many lamented the rising atmosphereof insecurity since the uprising, and the disastrous effect thatmore than a year of political turmoil has had on the tourismindustry — a sector that generates the livelihoods of manyEgyptians. "We're all voting for Ahmed Shafik," said Hag Gabr, afactory owner. "We're not here for the oil, the sugar, and the 20pounds," he added, referring to rumors of material support handedout by the Muslim Brotherhood in the days ahead of the vote. "We'rehere for the safety and security." Many who voted for Moussa or Shafik explained they were motivatedby their sheer opposition to the Islamists.

And many Christians,who make up roughly 10% of Egypt's 85 million, said they voted forShafik because the Coptic church had pushed them toward the mostanti-Islamist choice. "Voting for the Brotherhood was a mistake wemade once," said Hassan Saqr, a businessman, referring to theparliamentary election. "But they cheated us and lied to us. Theytold us they'd bring security and put people in good jobs, and noneof that happened." Saqr voted for Ahmed Shafik too. The run-off will likely prove even fiercer than first round, once13 candidates have been whittled down to two.

Those two couldinclude Mohamed Morsy, Ahmed Shafik, Amr Moussa, or Abdel MoneimAboul Futouh. And although monitors and voters reported a relatively cleanprocess with few violations — at least compared to theintimidation, violence and fraud of Mubarak-era elections, —allegations of rigging and other irregularities (filed mostlyagainst Shafik and Morsy) could still tip the end game. Monitorsaffiliated with the Islamist candidates accused monitoring judgesof pressing illiterate voters to choose Shafik, and claimed hiscampaign of bussed people in. The other side accused the MuslimBrotherhood of handing out food — indeed, villagers inKirdasah admitted to having received it — and local mediareported by Thursday evening that most of the candidates hadviolated electoral rules. God knows who's going to win, manyEgyptians said, when asked for their predictions.

Osman MohamedAzmi, a government bureaucrat, was one who wouldn't say who hevoted for as he exited a polling station in central Cairo. "But,"he added, "I feel like a first class Egyptian citizen, who statedhis opinion." With reporting by Sharaf al-Hourani PHOTOS: Police and Protesters Clash in Cairo.

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