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Greek bank warns euro exit would slash income, cause highinflation, unemployment by guo ping





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Greek bank warns euro exit would slash income, cause highinflation, unemployment by
Article Posted: 05/04/2013
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Greek bank warns euro exit would slash income, cause highinflation, unemployment


 
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ATHENS, Greece – An exit from the euro would see Greeks lose more than half theirannual income and prompt a dramatic rise in unemployment andinflation, a report from the country's largest bank has warned. The National Bank of Greece study was published Tuesday as Greeceheads to new general elections on June 17, amid Europe-wide concernof broader financial turmoil if Greece's place in the singlecurrency is threatened by a victory for an anti-austerity party. "An exit from the euro would cause a significant drop in the livingstandards of Greek citizens — with a reduction of at least 55percent in per capita income," the authors of the 17-page reportwrote. "This would affect those on a lower income the most, with asignificant devaluation of the new currency, by 65 percent, andfinancial contraction of 22 percent on top of the (GDP) reductionof 14 percent that occurred between 2009 and 2011." Amid global concern over the euro, a senior U.S. Treasury officialwas in Athens on Tuesday to start a round of Europeanconsultations.

Lael Brainard, a Treasury Undersecretary forInternational Affairs, met top Greek finance officials and is dueto travel on to Frankfurt, Germany, and Madrid, Spain for moretalks. Debt-crippled Greece has been kept afloat by huge internationalrescue loans, granted on condition of harsh cutbacks and reformsthat slashed living standards that have driven the country intopolitical stalemate. Political parties failed to form a coalition government after May 6elections, triggering another contest between the pro-bailout NewDemocracy conservatives and left-wing Syriza party that haspromised to cancel the terms of the country's rescue loanagreements. The bank report also warned that if Greece did exit the euro,unemployment would rise to 34 percent while inflation would hit 30percent and then higher.

Unemployment in Greece currently stands ataround 22 percent while inflation is 2 percent. However, news that New Democracy had taken a slight lead in theweekend opinion polls sent shares on the Athens Stock Exchange upby 6.9 percent on Monday and a further 1.9 percent on Tuesday. "New Democracy has regained the lead in several opinion polls,ahead of its main rival, the left-wing Syriza party. Given that theparty that comes first in the election gets a 50-seat bonus in the300-member Parliament, coming first is crucial," Martin Koehring ofthe Economist Intelligence Unit said.

He said the next government would face "a very challenging fiscalausterity agenda." But he added: "It is likely that a new government will be able toget some concessions on the pace of implementing the agenda." The country's caretaker government, meanwhile, is battling a suddenslide in state revenues and said it will do all it can to ensurethe state does not run out of cash amid the protracted politicalturmoil. "The first issue we are addressing is to increase revenues andrestrain spending, to ensure we remain within budgetary targets,"government spokesman Dimitris Tsiodras said. "Right now, that is the government's basic concern. But we will doanything necessary so that there is no problem with state paymentsand obligations." He did not comment on a warning by former prime minister LucasPapademos — leaked to Sunday's To Vima newspaper — thatGreece risked running out of funds just after the election.

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