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Concerned: dear japan, we alaskans still love you -- even as ourno. 2 partner - China Wood Circular by na b





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Concerned: dear japan, we alaskans still love you -- even as ourno. 2 partner - China Wood Circular by
Article Posted: 04/13/2013
Article Views: 53
Articles Written: 2638
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Concerned: dear japan, we alaskans still love you -- even as ourno. 2 partner - China Wood Circular


 
Business,Business News,Business Opportunities
Dear international trade partners, As you may have recently read, it became official . You're now second on the list of countries which import Alaska'sgoods. At the end of 2011, there was some reasoned belief from state officials that after all the numbers were in, they would find that Chinasupplanted you at the top of the list. And sure enough, it did.Last year, the total value of Alaska goods exported to China was$1.44 billion, up a dramatic 56 percent over the year before, andexports to you were down 10 percent, settling at $1.08 billiontotal.

We The Concerned are concerned, as is our habit, that you might befeeling a little down about Alaska lately. We just wanted to letyou know you're still a very valuable trade partner, and that thedecline may actually end up being auspicious. State officials say China became Alaska's No. 1 export market in2011 mainly on the strength of increased fisheries trade, plus somechanges in petroleum shipping. Overall since 2009, they say, Alaskaexports to China have tripled.

Fisheries exports to China increased 52 percent between the first10 months of 2010 and 2011. And by the end of 2011, China displaced you as the top importer of Alaska seafood products. China soaked up$836 million of Alaska's top export product, and you only purchased$589 million. It might sting to hear, but that's the first time ina very long time you haven't been the No. 1 export market forAlaska's fish.

Another reason you're not No. 1 anymore is that Alaska's exports ofliquefied natural gas took a bit of a hit. A long-term LNG contractbetween Japanese utilities and ConocoPhillips, which operates anexport terminal at Nikiski in Cook Inlet, ended in early 2011 andwasn't renewed. The plant was idled in November, but it still madesome spot deliveries to Japan, and shipped LNG to other Asiancountries, including at least two known tanker loads to China lastyear. The Nikiski LNG closure was a big reason the state's exportof LNG dropped 42 percent in 2011.

Which brings us to why we think your dropping to No. 2 might not besuch a bad thing. Contrary to popular opinion, Alaska can be alittle cautious, coy even, especially when it comes to sellingnatural gas. Despite controlling access to trillions of feet, thestate has only had one long-term export contract for LNG export inits history, the one for the Nikiski plant.

Even though there's notmuch LNG going out of the state right now, we The Concerned think atrend is developing: Alaska prefers to have its fish products pavethe way for a new export market, then LNG. That's how it worked for you way back when -- first fish, then gas.Maybe it feels more comfortable leading with our strongest, mostrevered export product, which by far is fish. But whatever thereason, that's how things have worked out so far in an extremelylimited sample. It's almost like flooding a country with fish, roe and shellfish isAlaska's way of testing the water, laying the groundwork for morecapital-intensive things like petroleum products and concentratedores. There's nothing to be worried or self-conscious about withfish.

For that matter, there s very little true competition. Butone molecule of methane is basically the same as any other, andcommitting to major infrastructure and forecasting marketfluctuations at least a decade out takes a great deal ofconfidence. Until recently, the state and its main producers seemed to havelittle confidence in Alaska LNG. Now, all of a sudden, within thelast several months actually, the state, AGIA licensee, producers(and probably the stars) say they're aligned toward Alaska LNGshipments to Asia.

And for you, the possibility of Alaska gasshipments probably couldn't come at a better time. You've shut downbasically all of your nuclear reactors and are in the process ofswitching to natural gas for your electricity needs. Several peoplefrom the highest levels of your government were in Washington,D.C., recently, and we know they heard about how advantageous Alaska's LNG would be for you, especiallyin geographical comparison to any sort of LNG terminal planned for the U.S. East Coast.

We The Concerned don't know how the state feels about it, but wesee the recent dramatic increase in seafood shipments to China asjust the beginning of a long-term plan to eventually ship LNGthere. China can have whatever's left over after Alaska 's LNGexports gradually take the place of its seafood exports to Japan.Assuming of course, you have needs left unmet by North American,Asian, Siberian, Australian, Scandinavian, or Russian LNG projectscurrently under development. Have faith, even though you fell to No. 2 on Alaska's export list,the tide may be turning. And you're still No.

1 in our hearts. Love, The Concerned Write the Concerned.

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