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India pharma rode on the wave of bunched up patent expiries in the US with many Para IV launches in 2012. In addition, it also benefited from the continuing high teen growth of Indian pharma market. With patent expiries in the US dwindling from $30b in 2012 to $10b in 2013 (small molecules), Indian generic companies will now need to focus on complex generics that offer sustainability of earnings. Locally acting drugs and targeted drug delivery products make up for the bulk of complex formulation generics. We have analyzed this space and have provided a fairly comprehensive list of products falling under these categories indicating that topical drugs remains the most near term opportunity for generics. Inhalers offer the most lucrative opportunity, though not before 2016. http://www.bharatbook.com/biotechnology-market-research-reports/global-pharmaceutical-biotechnology-outlook-2013-india-pharma.html Our growth outlook on Indian market continues to remain optimistic with 15-18% growth. This is based on the silent reforms in India that started with implementation of a strict GMP (Good Manufacturing Practices) in 2005, continued with implementation of GLP (Good Laboratories Practices) in 2011 and now the bar coding norms at primary and secondary levels. All these continue to put pressure on the very small manufacturer ultimately leading to industry consolidation – something that augurs well for world’s most fragmented pharma market. We do not see any negative impact due to the newly announced National Pharma Pricing Policy (NPPP) due to its emphasis on market price based pricing policy. Our top pick remains Sun Pharma as it remains the best positioned to tide over the patent cliff with its latest acquisitions, DUSA and URL Pharma. A strong balance sheet further allows it to acquire more such high value targets. We also recommend Natco Pharma for its focus on complex generics like Copaxone, Revlimid and Tamiflu. Besides this, its domestic market strategy targeted at gaining Compulsory License on high value oncology products too remains lucrative. Key Topics Covered Complex Formulations – Scope and Opportunity in US market Liposomal Drugs: Opportunities for Generic Companies Colon Targeted Drugs: Opportunities for Generic Companies Transdermal Drugs: Opportunities for Generic Companies Topical Dermatological Drugs: Opportunities for Generic Companies Inhalers: Opportunities for Generic Companies Reforms and Consolidation Continues in Domestic Market New Pharma Pricing Policy – Neutral to Positive for the Industry IPCA: Momentum Continues Natco: Entering the Big League Through Multi Pronged Strategy Sun Pharma: Balance Sheet Leveraging at Play Aurobindo: Still Not Out of the Woods Dishman: Management Accepts The Limitations of Pure Play Crams Biocon: Expenses More Visible than Growth Drivers Cadila Healthcare: In a Phase of Consolidation Cipla: Weakness in Regulated Markets Persists I. India Pharma: Complex Formulations - The Next Leap Forward Complex Generics – Life after the Patent Cliff Complex Generics – Scope and Opportunity Opportunities in Formulation Expertise II. Targeted and Locally Acting Drugs: Opportunities for Generic Companies Liposomal Drugs Colon Targeted Drugs Transdermal Drugs Topical Dermatological Drugs Inhalers III. Domestic Formulations: Reforms and Consolidation Continue GMP Norms in 2005 Helped Consolidation Good Laboratory Practices - Introduced from 1 Nov 2010 GMP + GLP = Growth of Big Firms At the Cost of SMEs Bar Coding on Packaging – Improves India’s Image But At a Cost IV. New Pharma Pricing Policy: Neutral to Positive for the Industry India Pharma – Company Analysis 1. IPCA: Momentum Continues Anti Malarial Tender Business – Continues to Drive Growth US Generics – Temporary Delay at Indore SEZ Domestic Formulations – Growth on Track Margins – Limited Scope of Improvement 2. Natco Pharma: Entering the Big League Through Multi Pronged Strategy Domestic Formulations - Onco Focused Portfolio Venezuela – Potential Oncology Market for Natco Para IV Opportunities– A Free Call Option 3. Sun Pharma: Balance Sheet Leveraging at Play DUSA Acquisition – Targeting High Value Acquisition of Taro’s Minority Stake – The Offer Might be Revised Further US Formulations – Growth Continues Domestic Pharma – Underlying Healthy Growth 4. Aurobindo: Still Not Out of the Woods US formulations – Growth led by New Launches and Forex Product Filing details ARV formulations – Modest Outlook Margins Improvement led by High US Formulations Debt – Continues to Remain High For more information kindly visit : Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013: India Pharma Or Bharat Book Bureau Tel: +91 22 27810772 / 27810773 Fax: + 91 22 27812290 Email: info@bharatbook.com Website: www.bharatbook.com Follow us on twitter: https://twitter.com/researchbook Our Blogs: http://www.linkedin.com/company/bharat-book-bureau http://financemarketreports.blogspot.com/
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