G-8 or g-zero? why the west no longer sets the global agenda - China Industrial Spray Booths

When the G-7 was found in the 80′s its goal was to gather theleaders of the world's most successful, dynamic economies toplot pathways to further prosperity. Russia was later added to itsguest list as a reward for casting off communism rather than as avote of confidence in its economy. But today, confidence in thegroup is low. Few seem to believe that the leaders of the UnitedStates, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Canada areequipped to tackle the problems facing the world economy. (Theyeffectively admitted their limitations in 2008 when a far widerforum, the Group of 20 which included the major emergingeconomies such as China, India, Brazil, Turkey and others totackle the global financial meltdown.) Those gathering at Camp David on Friday are lacking in both fiscalresources and political authority to take far-reaching steps thatmight turn the tide.

Each member country faces massive domesticproblems whose consequences, given the connections established byglobalized capital markets, could have profound consequencesfor many of the others. But there are sharp policy differencesamong them over how to address those challenges, making the G-8seem somehow less than the sum of its parts. The U.S., still first among equals in the G-8, has becomeincreasingly ungovernable, locked into a pattern of long-termpolitical gridlock that may not be resolved by November'spresidential election. Japan's ever-anemic economy was dealta body blow by last year's tsunami and nuclear crises. Thenorthern Europeans are caught between a center-right consensus onausterity and growing calls from Washington and France'snewly elected center-left government for a growth-orientedalternative.

That clamor may grow louder in the months ahead amid amounting backlash from the resurgent left (and also the far-right,which has captured a smaller, but significant share of the workingand middle class anti-austerity vote in a number of countries).Italy is the biggest of the continent's basket-caseeconomies. Russia is an authoritarian energy exporter in a state ofopen strategic competition with the West. Allow Canada a moment ofuncharacteristic smugness, having done rather nicely in weatheringthe financial crisis as a result of its habit of sensible policychoices. ( MORE: European Voters Have Rejected Austerity So What Happens Next? ) "G-Zero" has been the buzzword in foreign policycircles in the past week, as risk analyst and Eurasia Grouppresident Ian Bremmer promotes his new book, Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World . His key point is that the global balances of power have shiftedin ways that leave no single center of power, or poles betweenwhich countries are forced to choose.

Instead, the most adaptivecountries are those whose strategic, security and economicpartnerships are diverse think Brazil or Turkey. Bremmer explains : "The United States will remain the sole superpower for theforeseeable future, but war-weary, under-employed, debt-plaguedvoters will reject an activist foreign policy. Europeanswon't fill the vacuum; they're busy fighting overhow best to save the eurozone. China and other emerging powerswon't be much help. They face too many complex challengesat home to accept new risks and burdens abroad.

This leadershipvoid won't last forever, but the problem won't besolved this year or next." The G-8 might also once have functioned as a kind of power caucuswithin NATO and other international forums, shaping policy fordealing with emerging political and security crises. But on thatfront, too, the G-8 is unlikely give a decisive lead. For onething, Russia is substantially at odds with key Western powers over the primary security challenges currently on theinternational agenda such as the crisis in Syria and the standoffover Iran's nuclear program. Even without Russia's vigorous defense of the Assad regime,there's little appetite in Western capitals for any sort ofdirect military intervention, which could mire NATO countries in aprotracted, messy civil war. Washington will hope to do better inkeeping the Europeans on board for the oil and financial sanctionsthat put the biggest squeeze on Iran, although that's aconsensus already established among them — and maintaining itwill depend less on any conversation in the G-8 than whattranspires in next week's talks in Baghdad between the P5+1 group (the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Russiaand China).

One change, in that respect, will be the absence ofNicolas Sarkozy and the debut of his successor, French PresidentFrancoise Hollande: While Hollande has formally endorsedFrance's standing position on Iran, he's highlyunlikely to play the activist hard-liner role of his predecessor.And the visit to Tehran last week, in a private capacity, by formerprime minister from Hollande's Socialist Party, MichelRocard, raised speculation that Paris may now be more inclined toencourage the diplomacy of which Sarkozy had been openly skeptical. ( MORE: What the Election of Fran ois Hollande Means for France, EuropeAnd The World ) At the NATO summit in Chicago, Afghanistan will be the topitem on the agenda. The improbable effort to impose the will of theWest on the Hindu Kush is nearing its predictably messy end,although NATO is not about to acknowledge failure despite mounting evidence to the contrary. The Wall Street Journal on Thursday reported an uptick in Taliban attacks in the very areas ostensibly clearedby the "surge" ordered by President Obama in 2009.It's becoming increasingly difficult to sustain the idea thatNATO will leave behind a stable Afghanistan to be secured againstthe Taliban by indigenous security forces paid for by the West.

TheAfghan economy is simply too puny to sustain the armed forces NATOis building; the Afghan government requires $4 billion in aid ayear to keep its soldiers in the field, and Washington is hoping topersuade the Europeans to pay their share. But Washington'sefforts the past decade and more to get the Europeans to spendmore on their own defense and share more of NATO's burdenhave floundered. It is difficult to imagine them reaching intodramatically diminished national coffers to pay for an iffygendarme force in Central Asia. Defense Secretary Robert gates, before his retirement last year,warned that the Europeans risked making NATO irrelevant by theirreluctance to expand their defense spending.

But the reality isthat spending on NATO, and expeditionary warfare, are simply notpriorities in the minds of the Western European electorates.Sarkozy may have hoped that taking the lead in orchestrating an aircampaign to rid Libya of the odious regime of Colonel MuammarGaddafi would help get him reelected, but French voters clearlyweren't interested in his military exploits in the Maghreb.In the era of Sarkozy's predecessor, President JacquesChirac, French foreign minister Hubert Vedrine complained of thedominance of the American ‘hyperpower,' and made abuzzword of ‘multipolarity' a world order inwhich there was no single dominant powers, but instead a balancecreated by a number of different power centers. A quick glance atthe G-8 and NATO events this weekend will confirm thatVedrine's wish is being realized, although‘G-Zero' may not be quite what he'd had in mind. MORE: Dismal Numbers from China and India Indicate Further Weakening ofGlobal Economy.

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