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This report enumerates the subscriber base and estimates subscriber growth in five classes of telecommunication services providers through a quantitative analysis of the major players in each of the following market segments: wireless carriers, CLECs, dominant incumbent carriers, regional incumbent carriers, and cable providers. In addition to enumerating subscriber totals, both by the number of subscribers and by percentage of subscribers held by each class of service provider, the report discusses the impacts that data services will have on wireless growth, the adoption of Telco-TV on the wireline carriers, and how continuing competition between wireline carriers and cable operators is being played out in the plant upgrades. This study's main thesis is that the future of any segment is highly dependant upon the actions taken by the competitive service providers. Report Excerpt Chapter I The purpose of this report is to quantify the number of subscribers by carrier for various telecommunications and media services. This report contains a section on each of the following categories: · Wireless · CLEC · Dominant Carriers · Regional Carriers · Cable Companies INSIGHT's forecasts of the future number of subscribers to the various telecommunications services presented in this report were developed using a model. On the demand side of the model, we assume that six customer clusters or segments drive the telecommunications market: Wireless Business Wireless Residential Landline Business Landline Residential Residential High Speed Internet Residential Video The traffic loads generated by these six segments and their evolution from one technology to the next has been fairly consistent and therefore predictable over the intermediate term. On the supply side of our model, however, we assume that five types of telecommunications providers noted above will compete for the business among these segments. The model and resulting forecasts cover the major players in each segment, which account for at least 80 percent of the subscribers within that segment. The moves that these players make will drive the segment. Our model can also be run assuming each major player in a provider group follows a different strategy, although that level of detail was not used for this analysis. The model can handle any number of industry players. The underlying premise is that once a certain standard has been achieved, the industry behaves much like a commodity market with changes in share driven by differences in price. In the past, customers churned between IXC and RBOC for long distance service and a bundle of local and LD. Today customers churn between DSL and cable, and in the future the churn will be between video service from the cable company versus telco versus satellite provider. Similarly, market shares between ILEC and cable companies will change as they compete for the same customer. Distribution of revenue among industry groups will also be affected; for example, wireless substitution shifts revenue from wireline to wireless. Furthermore, the model assumes that these industry groups will behave in a manner that will increase their revenue stream over time. Telco's may offer triple play service at a lower price point than the cable companies, but only to the point that it drives incremental revenue and margin. The cable company response to this may be to increase their share among business customers or to partner with a wireless provider to offer the quadruple play. Another premise of the model is substitution. In addition to changing vendors, customers can change services such as migrating from a fixed line to wireless or DSL to wireless data. The model is set up to allow each provider group to offer different services, and depending on the growth rate of these services, the player may be a winner or loser. This model can also be used to estimate how changes in price will impact the overall industry. Questions arise along the lines of the following: "How far can your competitor reduce price before it will cause deterioration in their financial condition?" 1.2 Subscriber Growth Summary Consolidation of the telecommunications industry, combined with new technologies, and some regulatory rulings have created a number of winners and losers among the categories mentioned above. Wireless is perhaps the clearest winner, with 15 percent annual growth in subscribers over the past two and one half years. Although subscriber growth may slow in the coming years, revenues from data services will likely drive overall revenue at a healthy pace. Market Segmentation Wireless Subscibers Wireline Subscribers CLECs Business Residential Dominent Carriers By Line type Video ISP Residential Business Regional Carriers By Line type Video ISP Residential Business Cable Companies TV Cable Internet Cable Telephony Table of Contents : Chapter I Executive Summary 1.1 Report Overview 1.2 Subscriber Growth Summary Chapter II Wireless 2.1 Wireless Overview 2.2 Market Size 2.3 Trends in the Wireless Segment Chapter III CLEC 3.1 CLEC Overview 3.2 CLEC Market Size 3.3 Trends in the CLEC Market Chapter IV Dominant Carriers 4.1 Overview (AT&T, Verizon, Qwest) 4.2 Market Size 4.3 Trends in the Dominant Carriers Market Chapter V Regional Players 5.1 Overview Regional Players 5.2 Regional Market Size 5.3 Trends in the Regional Market Chapter VI Cable Companies 6.1 Cable Companies Overview 6.2 Cable Market Size 6.3 Trends in the Cable Market Chapter VII Subscriber Totals 7.1 Subscriber Totals Overview Chapter VIII Subscriber Forecasts 8.1 Telecommunications Subscriber Forecasting Model 8.2 Wireless Subscribers 8.3 CLEC Subscribers 8.4 Dominant Carrier Subscribers 8.5 Regional Subscribers 8.6 Cable Subscribers 8.7 Summary Appendix ILEC Details Table of Figures Chapter II II-1 Wireless Subscriber Distribution (Percent) June 2007 Chapter III III-1 CLEC Business Access Line Distribution (Percent) June 2007 III-2 Number of UNEs Chapter IV IV-1 Dominant Players Access Line Distribution June 2007 Chapter V V-1 Regional Carrier Subscriber Distribution (Percent) Chapter VI VI-1 High Speed Data over Cable Distribution (Percent) Chapter VII VII-1 Subscribers by Category (Percent) Table of Tables Chapter II II-1 Number of Wireless Subscribers By Company (Millions) Chapter III III-1 CLEC Access Lines By Company (Millions) III-2 Mergers and Acquisitions Chapter IV IV-1 Access Lines For Dominant Carriers (Millions) IV-2 Broadband and TV Service For Dominant Carriers Chapter V V-1 Regional Access Lines By Company (Millions) Chapter VI VI-1 Cable Subscribers By Company (Millions) Chapter VII VII-1 Subscribers by Category (Millions) Chapter VIII VIII-1 Growth in Subscribers All Segments (Millions) 2007-2012 VIII-2 Growth in Wireless Subscriber (Millions) 2007-2012 VIII-3 Growth in CLEC Subscribers (Millions) 2007-2012 VIII-4 Growth in Dominant Carrier Subscribers by Line Type VIII-5 Growth in Regional Carriers Subscribers (Millions) 2007-2012 VIII-6 Growth in Cable Subscribers by Service Type
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