Since the second quarter of this year, Qinhuangdao market trading price of thermal coal continue to soar situation. 19 June, and July 23, the State limit twice, continuing "high fever" in the market price of thermal coal began, "cool." We believe that coal prices may fall further, but the downside is limited, in 2009 performance of the coal industry will continue to grow substantially.
Coal price rise caused by inadequate supply of pre-
Domestic coal prices continued to rise in the second quarter, mainly the supply of coal to the coal of high tension, power plants and steel mills ran out of coal stocks frequently, the market reflects the fact that inadequate supply of coal resources. However, from the data, the coal market environment this year than last year level. Market performance and statistical data variance is due to obvious lack of coal statistics and distortion. A few years ago the coal business, "cheat" statistics "drain system" of the illegal production, with the mine safety management of lack of depth gradually, resulting in coal production this year, an "inflated."
We believe that the small reduction of coal production is the main reason for inadequate supply. Preliminary forecast, the National "missing system" in coal production at 2 million tons. As the close-out and integration of transformation of small coal mines have expanded, this part of the implicit reduction of coal production and coal demand continues to increase, causing the current shortage.
In addition, the eve of the Olympics for security reasons, the department limited the coal shipped, thereby reducing the coal resources, led to a tight coal supply and demand, and promote the market coal prices.
At the same time, the international market coal prices to stimulate, in the first half of China's coal export situation has rapidly improved, 4 in a row finally realized after years of shrinking growth. This is the domestic coastal coal market and the overall market had a tremendous impact supply and demand, as to promote coal "seller" relationship formation and development of one of the main. The railway transport capacity and market demand does not match, also accelerated the country parts of the regional coal supply.
Coal price downside is limited
July 23 the second time limit, the coal prices fell. In fact, the price of coal down there are changes in supply and demand. We expect the post-coal prices may fall further, for several reasons.
First, power consumption and other key coal enterprises can not afford the price of coal rose sharply, there discontinued, out of business phenomena, coal consumption will inevitably produce inhibition. Second, the existing export coal production enterprises of Coal profit level was significantly lower than domestic sales, which would crack down on exports of coal enterprises enthusiasm. Thirdly, with the gradual reduction of heat wave, power consumption and coal demand payback. Fourth, to bad weather, declining demand and other factors influence the number of vessels with coal Qinhuangdao Port has reduced transaction passion decreased.
Although the domestic coal market decline, but also inhibit the decrease in coal prices.
First, the price rise again, may lead to inhibition by high demand for coal prices have recovered. Second, enter in August, the Shanxi Datong, Shuozhou and so worsened the situation of coal resources in the trend, some made of coal coal station "on station" price (purchase price of fat coal station) again gained momentum. In mid-August, the heat is 5500 kcal / kg coal, "the station" the price has reached 800 yuan / ton (tax included) around the end of July rose more than 50 yuan / ton. At the same time, the regional heat 5500 kcal / kg high-quality thermal coal resources of increased tension, resulting in coal Cargo Station "on station" and the declining quality of coal shipped.
The above factors, we believe that the domestic coal market price although there are downside, but a further rise in price and supply of quality coal resources of the company, not much room for coal prices fall, coupled with the fourth quarter will enter the peak season demand for coal is expected to post coal price will continue to maintain high level.
In 2009 the high growth of coal industry
Since 2008, domestic coal prices increased contribution to the performance of listed companies, obviously, but the contribution of coking coal and anthracite mainly in listed companies. Anthracite and coking coal production of listed companies because of its high degree of product market and fully enjoy the benefits of rising coal prices. The production of steam coal for the major listed companies, because most of its coal supply contract for coal, coal supply, less the spot market, spot prices and contract prices of coal there is a big gap between it and therefore increase the price of coal over its contribution to business growth small. But according to the present situation, the spot price of coal in Qinhuangdao coal contract prices next year, have an important impact, which means that next year will focus on coal contract prices or a larger increase.
Considering price increases and spot prices, we focus on the coal contract prices next year at least up 100 yuan / ton, coal companies next year with important support business growth. Be pointed out that half of coking coal companies there are still products for thermal coal market, so prices on coking coal and thermal coal business performance class is also important to support growth.
In short, the steam coal spot coal price increase on this year's contribution to the performance of listed companies is limited, but the performance of the coal industry growth next year have a major impact, in 2009 the performance of listed coal companies there is a huge upside. I am China Computer Parts writer, reports some information about benefits of goji berries , basmati rice long grain.
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