April 21 morning news, the China International Economic Exchange Center today released the first quarter of 2010, economic analysis shows a significant improvement in exports in 2010, rebounded by more than the 2009 recovery rate. This year the second and third quarter, China's exports may still maintain a relatively strong upward trend.
23-quarter economic growth to decline China International Economic and Exchange Center Research Fellow, Wang Jun said that China's recent economic changes in the leading index, last November at a peak, then decline stage, the composite index is expected in the first quarter will stop rising recently. Now the same index which is still in an upward trend, the current index has Guaitou down the. 23-quarter economic growth this year will decline.
Wang Jun said that China's economy from reflecting the state in which the alarm index, China is in the yellow zone, close to the red light district was. Although China's economy in early 2009, has much lower base, but shows the current focus of China's economic control to keep the economy running smoothly in the direction of change.
Will remain strong next upward trend in exports
Exports from China, China International Economic and Exchange Center reported a significant improvement in exports in 2010, rebounded by more than the 2009 recovery rate. And the recent exit from the first index changes, in the first quarter was a significant increase in the channel which also indicates the second year, three quarters of China's exports may still maintain a relatively strong upward trend.
Commodity prices will not play a leading role on the CPI higher
Wang Jun said that judging from the first quarter's index, showed the following characteristics of a bulk product prices are generally higher steady oscillation, but it should be said on January 23 a month value to the economic recovery since the end of 2008 new, continuing an upward trend late last year.
From a specific point and point of view, composite index in January was 148.8 points, at 9 o'clock on the 15 February, a slight increase. January 2009 is relatively low base, up bigger gains, rose very fast down the chain in January, 23 months up.
The other hand, Wang Jun said higher commodity prices oscillating dollar liquidity also affected the U.S. dollar index change, a more relaxed mobility, reflected the international commodity prices. And the dollar index to, on the other hand inhibit the movement of commodity prices, a quarter or slightly rising trend. At the same time the quality of economic recovery is not very high, there are some natural factors that cause droughts, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc., is the oscillation increased, not unilateral upward trend.
Wang Jun said that international commodity prices has increased to some extent the pressure of imported inflation in China, intensified inflation expectations, and the long term trend, rising commodity prices on domestic inflation certainly have some impact because Oil , Iron ore, nonferrous metals, prices have increased the cost of domestic enterprises, and promote the cost, the formation of a new price rise factors, first transmitted to the domestic raw materials, finished goods market and then to the market, oil prices increase, but other related coal, Steel , Metal, etc., all follow corresponding rise.
"Commodity prices on domestic prices to some extent the pressure, but because of conduction of the factors needed for some time, and now there is no obvious reflection of upstream prices and the prices of industrial products. This indirect effect on the CPI higher does not play a leading role. "Wang Jun said. I am Components Electronic suppliers writer, reports some information about steel car rims , rays gram lights.
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