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Though the new loan release by the four major state-owned commercial banks is smaller than expected, market professionals still think the credit scale in June would have increased. Insiders show that there are less than 200 billion loans in June by the four major banks while small and medium-sized banks are active in releasing loans in this month and the new loans increased fast.
The less than 200 billion loans by the four major banks cooled the expectation of the “over 1000 billion credit in June”. Insiders indicate that the “analysts who positively predicted the over 1000 billion loans now have shrinking expectations.” Generally the new loans from the four major banks take up 1/3 of the banking industry. Based on the estimation, the new loan volume in June was supposed to be 600 to 700 billion yuan.
However, insiders show that on the basis of 8000 billion credit target for the entire year and the seasonal releases rhythm of 3:3:2:2, 2400 billion credit supply should be finished in Q2 and still the new credit volume in June should reach 920 billion yuan. In consideration of the larger-than-expected credit supply in Q1 and the decrease of credit supply in Q2, the new credit volume in June will still be over 850 billion yuan.
Insiders said that note financing for many banks suffered negative increase. The mid and long-term loans were issued and the credit structure improved obviously.
A source said that the four major state-owned commercial banks, namely, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), Bank of China (BC) and China Construction Bank (CCB), whose new loans are 57 billion, 49 billion, 33 billion and 50 billion respectively. The note financing of ICBC, ABC and CCB suffers negative growth while the note financing of Jiaotong Bank and China Everbright Bank, etc. decreased.
“Due to the influences of liquidity squeeze, the discount rate in June soared. The tight condition of hedging loans with note financing is relieved.” Insiders also indicate that the decrease of note financing volume brings the inflated credit increment to a better condition.
In response to the decline of note financing volume, the proportion of medium and long-term loans grows up which flow to entity economy. The project approval procedure is quickened by relevant government departments in May. General infrastructure projects started intensively and the fund allocating capital will gradually be injected. Analysts think that there is time difference between project approval and loan release. As the successive starting of newly approved projects, the proportion of medium and long-term loans is expected to rise up.
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